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Dr. Nabil Kukali said
"I would like to point out that most of the results the polling and research
centers obtained prior to the legislative elections held on Wednesday,
January 25th, 2006, were very close to each other".
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He said today in a survey that "what drew my attention and urged me to
conduct this survey is my watching a TV discussion on Al-Jazeera Channel
Thursday, 26/1/2006, about the preliminary results of the PLC-election the
day before".
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The question of Al-Jazeera correspondent to the Director of the Research
Center at Al-Najah University, Nablus, about the public opinion polls, the
spontaneous reaction of the audience on that question was ironical and
expressing merely skepticism and incredulity towards the results of the
announced public opinion polls, he added.
. "This doesn't however mean that there is no alert public appreciating the
work of the poll centers, and educated leaderships, who trust the results of
these polls and appraise the efforts and pains these polling centers take
upon themselves for the building of a Palestinian democratic society. For
this reason, and in my capacity as a pollster, I find myself obliged to give
my opinion frankly and honestly," he states.
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The process of investigating the Palestinian public opinion in order to know
its notions and directions about the elections gives the people the chance
to freely express their wishes and the opportunity to show their support or
sympathy to the candidates and parties, says the survey.
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It furthermore helps the politicians to assess their positions in the
Palestinian street, understand the motivations of the voters and the issues
that satisfy or displease them, it continues.
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"In addition, the polling provides the politicians with the information on
how far the voters accept their programs and obtain information about the
voters, who will likely support them, even if they are not supporting them
at the moment," the survey reveals.
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"We, in the Palestinian territories, are lucky to have many polling centers,
and we may be distinguished from other countries in the region by the
presence of these centers, which in other countries hardly play an important
role in the formation of the political life," says Dr. Kukali.
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"We, as polling centers in the Palestinian territories, have played and
still play a significant role in the public life, without any intervention
in our internal affairs, neither from the side of the Palestinian Authority,
nor from the side of the opposition, and that since the date of our
foundation, an evidence that democracy in all its forms is not a mere
talking, but also a practice, and that what really emerged from the
legislative elections some days ago," he affirms.
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"Now, in my capacity as founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion
(PCPO) in Beit Sahour and the person responsible for it, I want to talk
about the last poll ( poll no. 149 ) PCPO has conducted in the period from
January 18th to 21st, 2006 and published on January 23rd, 2006, five days
before the legislative elections, he says.
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The poll is covered by a random sample of (2,389) adults over 18 years old,
representing the various demographic strata in the West Bank, including East
Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. All the interviews were carried out face-to-face
inside the respondents' homes, which were randomly chosen according to
PCPO's long experienced scientific methodology.
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"The margin of error was (±2.0 %) at a level of confidence of (95 %). That
means that the error in the sample is plus or minus 2 point percent. A level
of confidence of (95 %) means that (2.5%) of the cases are very much higher
than the average, and (2.5%) are very much lower than the average, the rest,
(95 %), is the percentage of the results, which lie within the error range
of the sample choice," says Dr. Kukali "the aforementioned (5%) rate, which
lies very far from the average, represents the only probability of the poll
results being outside the margin of error.
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"60% of the Palestinians trust the polls, which does not mean that these
polls are infallible, for polls investigate the opinion of a representative
sample and are not plebiscites. One meets a good number of correct and
precise polls, but also some inexact and faulty ones. There are also polls
that have mistaken locally and globally," he adds.
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Dr. Kukali revealed that Mr. Warren Mitofsky from Mitofsky International,
New York, wrote us a letter on the same issue saying:" It seems more likely
that there is a response rate difference between Hamas and Fateh voters.
Fateh voters were cooperating more with the interviewers than the Hamas
voters." Mr. W. Mitowsky adds," It was the same problem we had in 2004 in
the U.S. exit polls. It happens when interviewers do not follow a random
selection of voters exiting the polling places. When these choose a voter to
interview using their judgment, they pick people who are more likely to talk
to them, people like themselves.
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"Although our PCPO did not conduct an exit poll, I find that the statement
of Mr. Mitofsky is an important point to take into due consideration by my
colleagues of the other poll centers" says Dr. Kukali .
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